The Microsoft Case V


Technology stocks had a bad day today with GOOG and MSFT going down 1% and AAPL 2.5%. Don’t know exactly what happened specially when macro data on Jobs was positive. Apparently the market is over the before-QE3 stage when all that mattered was Jobs and consumers data. Seems like the only things that matters in December is Fiscal cliff resolution.

MSFT went down to reach 26.38 but managed to close at 26.45. The interesting thing is that volume was lame. The same way I say i don’t get todays action I say volume was meaningless. This last sentence could itself have the answer for today’s price action: no fundamental reason at all.

On the fundamental side it appears the NPD’s report contradicting W8 40 Million sales by saying windows computers sales were down 21% in Oct-Nov YoY, is a bit biased since it goes from Oct 20 when W8 was not on sale yet….those ten days omitted from the sample represent about 20% of the total so…bearish sentiment based on that report is far overdone.

There is also some predictions that Windows Phone will grow 150% next year, going from 2% of the market share to 6%.

On the non tablets sales I have to say that they have come out late. Apparently 3 devices went out in late November, with the majority of them coming out in December and January. That’s why saying MSFT won’t sale tablets is lie.

Finally there is a strong rumor 3 additional models of Surfaces will be out in 2013, raging from 14″ to 8″.

On the Technical side, i found something interesting. Seemed weird to me MSFT has bearly moved in 3 weeks. If we take last 4 weeks, MSFT gapped down in the first, then went up hard and then back down hard. The net result is no movement.

I checked the weekly charts and last time this long consolidation formed see what happened:

Image

Have a nice weekend folks. Thanks for passing by.

UPDATE: I tried a couple of W8 tablets today, i really liked them. I have watched a video on youtube on the basic commands and they worked great. What called my attention was that they were priced like the Surface but didn’t come with Office. So, I guess Surface price is not that bad at all, and hopefully it will start to sell more now that retailers will have it on stores. See here

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